USD/CAD Plunge Risks 2021 Low- Loonie Levels

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Canadian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: Short-Term Trade Levels

  • Canadian Dollar updated technical business levels – Daily and Intad Charts
  • USD / CAD dives through monthly interval / key support – 2021 low
  • Key Support in 1.2358 – resistance / coming soon bassist cancellation 1.2485

The Canadian dollar rallied more than 1.24% against the US Dollar this month with a break below the April open range picking up USD / CAD to the annual low. While the collapse keeps the broader focus lower, the decline may be vulnerable in the previous days as price approaches only lower with the FOMC interest rate decision tomorrow. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that are important at the US dollar/CAD price letters. Review my newest Strategic Websitefor a deep failure of this Loonie technique layout and more.

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Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD / CAD Daily

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD / CAD Daily - Loonie Technical Forecast - Business Outlook

Diagram Prepared by Miguel Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD / CAD on Tradingview

Technical Perspective: In mine last Perspective on the Canadian Dollar we noted to be, “during an explosion with a broader recovery at risk below 1.26 … “Loonie marked a massive off-day reversal following the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision with USD / CAD covering the entire monthly interval in that single session. Pause under April open range / key support yesterday at 1.2468 / 85 encouraged sales of almost 0.7% with the decline now the annual lows.

Initial support rests at March 2020 trend line (blue) supported by annual lows / 88.6% Fibonacci revocation of the 2017 advance at 1,2358/ 65– a break / closure below this threshold would be necessary to keep the immediate decline feasible to the low day of 2018 next 1.2312 and the 2018 low at 1.2247.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD / CAD 240min

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD / CAD 240min - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Loonie price performance shows USD / CAD breaking below confluence support into the weekly open at 1.2473-85– a region defined by the 61.8% withdrawal from the March rally, the objective low-day closing so far, and the 100% extension of the late March decline. This zone also sets the highs for this week’s opening and as such, will serve as ours soon bassist invalidation level – gap / closure above this rexistence threshold would threaten greater reversal / recovery to the 1.26-hold again.

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Bottom line: USD / CAD broke below confluence support / the monthly lows and keeps the focus lower at the end of the month. That said, the decline has already extended more than 2% from the monthly highs in just four days, with the price already approaching initial support targets. From a trading point of view, look to reduce short exposures / lower protective stops while stretching to the annual lows – recoveries should be limited to 1.2485 SE price actually decreases with a close below 1.2358 necessary to keep the immediate short bias feasible. Review my newest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD / CAD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s business strategy, review his Fundamentals of a series of Technical Analysis on Building a Tradia Sstrategy

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD / CAD Price Chart - Loonie Retail Positioning - Technical Outlook

  • Summary of IG Customer Sense shows that traders are net-long USD / CAD – the ratio stands at +3.37 (77.14% of long traders) – typically bassist legacy
  • Long positions are21.49% higher than yesterday and 32.24% higher than last week
  • Short positions are 16.89% lower than yesterday and 28.07% lower than last week
  • We usually oppose a view of crowd sentiment, and the fact that merchants are network-long suggests USD / CAD prices may continue to fall. Traders are more online than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current position and recent changes gives us a stronger USD / CAD bearish counter-trade forecast of I feel standpoint.



of customers are long network.



of customers are net short.

Change in

Sopiras

Shorts

OI

Every day 8% 3% 7%
Weekly 64% -39% 16%

Key Data Editions of the United States / Canada

Key Editions of US / Canadian Data - USD / CAD Economic Calendar - Loonie Weekly Event Risk

Economic Calendarlatest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Technical Settings

– Written by Miguel Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Mmechael on Twitter @MBForex



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