Portugal moved from green to amber on UK travel list

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During yesterday’s session, the UK announced that for now it will not add new countries to its so-called “green list” of countries and targets considered safe during travel due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

This list began to be published after Britain began allowing its citizens to travel abroad, with the British government classifying countries into three lists, following the simple operation of a traffic light. Through the list, British citizens can see if they can travel freely or with restrictions, depending on the epidemiological situation and the vaccination process. The travel list is updated every third week.

The countries on the green list are those where British citizens can travel without borders. Currently on the green list we can find the following countries: Australia, Brunei, Falkland Islands, Faroe Islands, Gibraltar, Iceland, Israel, New Zealand, Portugal, Singapore, George and South Sandwich Islands, St. Helena and Sky Island.

If we focus closer to the list, we notice a curious trend. Indeed, many of these destinations are members of the Commonwealth or British territories, while most of the English’s main and popular European destinations, such as Spain, Italy, Greece and France are excluded. The exception to this was Portugal, but the country will now be removed from this list, instead of moving to the amber list, despite hosting the Champions League final in Lisbon last week, which featured two English teams.

This decision significantly affected the European tourism sector, as it was expected that the new update would in fact include several new destinations, rather than a reduction in green countries. As a result, there was a general decline in yesterday’s session, according to the tourism sector in the financial markets.

Specifically, airlines IAG, Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, EasyJet and Ryanair had declines of 4.82%, 3.52%, 4.64%, 5.08% and 4.52% respectively during Thursday’s session.

If we focus on IAG, the holding company formed by British Airways and Spanish Iberia, it has been one of the companies that has best withstood the pandemic storm in recent months. This is largely due to the significant volume of liquidity it has had over the past year, and partly due to its good position in the sector and the capital growth it has made during the month of September. However in the stock market, its price is still quite punished despite the good future prospects, thanks to the good pace of vaccination, although after yesterday’s decision the final takeoff may be delayed.

If we look at the daily chart, we can see how this company, after marking lows, started an upward trend that caused it to perform two strong sideways similar price solid patterns after experiencing a strong rebound.

The first of these sideways ranges was surpassed in February, where the price was finally able to surpass that channel’s high band after surpassing 200 GBX per share and its 200-session average. After that move, the price again started another sideways move between the march highs and an area close to the upper band of the previous channel acting as the main support level.

A possible bullish trigger could be the possible inclusion of Spain and other countries on the UK greenlist in the next three weeks, which could lead to a bullish breakdown of this new channel, opening the doors to a strong momentum that could lead the price to levels not seen since last summer, thus confirming the change of trend.

mceu 50925514621622808751594Source: IAG daily chart of Admiral Markets platform MetaTrader 5 from March 17, 2020 to April 26, 2021. Held on April 26 at 13:00 CET. Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future outcomes or future performance.

Evolution of the last 5 years:

  • 2020: -61.40%
  • 2019: 1.20%
  • 2018: -5.07%
  • 2017: 47.65%
  • 2016: -27.78%

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