Aussie Breaks 2021 Range- Rally at Risk

Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: AUD / USD Weekly Trading Levels

• Australian Dollar upgrade of technical business level – Weekly Chart
• AUD / USD dives though 2021 open range recovery from vulnerable trend resistance
• Aussie critical support in 7385, key resistance / bassist cancellation at 7733

The Australian Dollar rallied more than 1.4% against the US Dollar since the start of the week with AUD / USD reversing just ahead of trend support into the weekly opening. While a break of the annual open range diminishes the medium-term outlook, the immediate focus is on a possible exhaustion of this near-term recovery. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that are important at the AUD /US dollar weekly price chart. Review my newest Weekly Strategic Website by a deep failure of this Australian technique layout and more.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD / USD Weekly

Diagram Prepared by Miguel Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD / USD at Tradingview

Notes: Last month Australian Dollar Weekly Price Perspective we noticed that AUD / USD had, “once again reacted to weekly technical resistance and leaves the bulls vulnerable for under 7866. From a trading point of view, look for a flexion of annual-open support for guidance – recoveries should be limited by 7800 IF price actually decreases with end below 7700 needed to suggest more significant reversal is underway .Aussie spent the next four weeks firing just above this threshold before collapsing last week – the focus is on this near-term price recovery.

Initial resistance stands at the middle line (currently ~7640s) with bearish cancellation now lowered to the 2021 open / 61.8% Fibonacci reversal of the May decline at 7701/33– both levels of interest for possible price depletion. Starting weekly support lies with the 52-week moving average at ~7465 supported by key support at the low week of May 2017 near / 23.6% withdrawal at 7385-7417 – Look for a bigger reaction there IF you get guidance with a break / weekly under necessary to feed the next leg lower in price.

Bottom line: The Australian Dollar broke below annual growth support with the broader risk weighed to the downside while within this formation. From a business standpoint, look for a top run out before 7733 SE price actually lower with close below 7385 risking another accelerated Australian sale. Beware at the end of the week with the U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) at tap on Friday. I will post an updated Perspective on Australian Dollar after which we will receive further clarity shortly AUD / USD technical business levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s business strategy, review his Fundamentals of a series of Technical Analysis on Building a Tradia Sstrategy

Australian Dollar Trader Sense – AUD / USD Price Chart

• Summary of IG Customer Sense shows that traders are net-length AUD/ USD – the ratio is +1.76 (63.81% of traders long) – typically bassist legacy
• Long positions are 1.64% higher than yesterday and 8.84% higher than last week
• Short positions are7.45% lower than yesterday and 19.52% lower than last week
• We usually consider an opposing view of crowd sentiment, and the fact that traders are net-length suggests that AUD / USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD / USD bearish counter-trade forecast of I feel standpoint.

—

Key Australian / US Data Edition

Economic Calendar – latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical List

— Written by Miguel Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex