The U.S. dollar maintained a firm tone and reached a three-month high early Thursday, after 2.44% monthly in June, mainly driven by a sharp change in the Fed’s exchange rate outlook. The dollar index looks for further advance after completion of a shallow correction (92.38 / 91.50).
Bulls press pivotal Fibo barrier at 92.52 (76.4% from 93.45 / 89.50 falls) and 92.58 (base of thick weekly cloud) break, which would open to 2021 high at 93.45 (31 March).
Traders are wary, however, as massive weekly cloudy and overbought conditions in both, daily and weekly charts, can produce strong headwinds and also focus on tomorrow’s U.S. job data, which is expected to be a key driver and could push the dollar in both directions, depending on the result.
Forecasts show 700K new jobs added in June, compared to a 559K increase a month earlier.
High-quality June figures would show accelerating a recovery in the U.S. labor market that could support a dollar.
On the other hand, weaker expected numbers would signal that labor market growth continues to struggle, which would be negative for the dollar.
Resolutions: 92.52, 92.58, 93.00, 93.45.
Sup: 92.35, 91.94, 91.67, 91.47.