Economic calendar for the week 09.08.2021 – 15.08.2021

2021-08-07 2021-08-08
Economic calendar for the week 09.08.2021 – 15.08.2021

Jana Kane

Review of the main events of the Forex economic calendar for the next trading week (09.08.2021 – 15.08.2021)

The dollar strengthened sharply after the release of the U.S. Department of Labor report last Friday, which exceeded forecasts. Non-farm jobs in the U.S. grew 943,000 in July, while unemployment fell to 5.4% from 5.9% in June. Economists expected growth of 845,000 jobs and unemployment to fall to 5.7%. The dollar strengthened more significantly against the euro and the yen. As a result, the DXY dollar index, which consists of about 57% and 13% of the euro and the yen, respectively, rose immediately by 0.6% (+68 points at the end of the week), rising to 92.80 and again returning to last month’s highs.

Gold quotes also fell significantly. The XAU / USD pair fell below 1762.00, showing the most significant decline since June 20, both amid a strengthening dollar and rising U.S. fiscal yields after the release of a strong report on the U.S. labor market. Investors and many economists believe that strong employment figures could force the Fed to raise interest rates faster than expected, and also start reducing its current monthly purchase asset by $ 120 billion.

July job growth was the largest since August 2020. Such strong indicators show that next week, when few major macro indicators will be released, the dollar is likely to continue to strengthen.

Next week, financial market participants will pay attention to the publication of important macro-statistics from China, Germany, the United States and the United Kingdom.

* over the next week, new events may be added to the calendar and / or some scheduled events may be canceled

** GMT time

Monday, August 9th

01:30 CNY Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The National Bureau of Statistics of China will publish another monthly data reflecting the dynamics of consumer prices in China. Rising consumer prices could lead to an acceleration of inflation, which could force the People’s Bank of China to take measures aimed at tightening fiscal policy. Increased growth of consumer inflation may cause appreciation of the yuan, a weak result will press the yuan.

The Chinese economy, by various estimates, is already the largest in the world, pushing the U.S. economy to second place. Therefore, the publication of important macroeconomic indicators of this country has a major impact on world financial markets, mainly on the positions of the yuan, other Asian currencies, the dollar, commodity currencies, as well as on Chinese and Asian stock indices. China is the largest buyer of raw materials and supplier of a wide range of finished products to the world trade market.

In January 2021, the growth of the consumer inflation rate amounted to + 1.0% (-0.3% per year), in February + 0.6% (-0.2% per year), in May -0.2 % (+ 1.3% in annual terms), and in June -0.4% (+ 1.1% in annual terms).

A deterioration in macroeconomic indicators, including a decline in consumer inflation, could negatively affect the yuan’s positions, as well as commodity currencies such as the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars. To a greater extent, this is true for the Australian dollar, as China is Australia’s largest trading and economic partner.

According to the forecast, the consumer price index is expected to grow by + 0.2% in July (+ 0.8% per year).

The rise in the consumer inflation index will positively affect the yuan’s quotes, as well as commodity currencies. However, the data are worse than expected and the relative decline in CPI may negatively affect them.

Tuesday, August 10th

No major macro statistics planned to be published.

Wednesday, August 11th

06:00 EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in Germany (final estimate)

This index is published by the EU Statistical Office and is calculated on the basis of a statistical method agreed between all EU countries. It is an indicator to assess inflation and is used by the Governing Council of the ECB to assess the level of price stability. A positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative weakens it.

The preliminary forecast for July was: + 3.0% (versus + 2.1% in June, + 2.4% in May, + 2.1% in April, + 2.0% in March, + 1.6% in January and February, -0.7% in December and negative values ​​in the second half of 2020) per year. If the data turns out to be better than expected, the euro may strengthen soon. The growth of the indicator is a positive factor for the euro. The data suggest rising inflationary pressures in Germany. The data worse than the forecast and the previous value will negatively affect the euro.

$ 12:30 Consumer Price Index (former food and energy)

Consumer Price Index (CPI) determines the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services for a given period and is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. Food and energy were excluded from this indicator to give a more accurate estimate. High value strengthens the US dollar, while low value weakens it. In June 2021, the value of the indicator was + 0.9% (+ 4.5% per year), in May + 0.7% (+ 3.8% per year), and in April + 0.9% (+ 3.0% per year), which indicates some improvement in the situation after the index fell in March and April 2020 amid the coronavirus pandemic and the rise in consumer prices. If the data turns out to be weaker than the forecast, the dollar is likely to react with a short-term decline. Better-than-expected data will strengthen the dollar. Forecast for July: + 0.4% and + 4.3% (in annual terms), which is likely to have a positive impact on the USD.

Thursday, August 12th

06:00 GBP UK MEP for Q2 (preliminary assessment)

GDP is considered an indicator of the overall health of the British economy. The upward trend in GDP is considered positive for the GBP. Britain’s GDP was one of the highest in the world until 2016, when the Brexit referendum took place. Later its growth slowed, and with the onset of the global coronavirus pandemic, the growth rate of British GDP overall fell into negative territory.

2-preliminary forecast: + 4.8% (+ 22.1% Yoj) after a fall of -1.6% in 1st 2021, -19.8% in 2nd and an increase of + 1.3% in the fourth quarter of 2020. The main factors that may force the Bank of England to keep rates low are weak GDP and labor market growth, as well as low consumer spending. If GDP data turns out worse than expected, it will push on the pound. A strong GDP report will strengthen the pound.

Friday, August 13th

14:00 USD University of Michigan Consumer Index (preliminary edition)

This indicator reflects the confidence of American consumers in the economic development of the country. A high level indicates economic growth, while a low level indicates stagnation. Previous values ​​of the indicator: 81.2 in July, 85.5 in June, 84.9 in March, 76.8 in February, 79.0 in January 2021. An increase in the indicator will strengthen the USD, while a decrease in the value will weaken the dollar. This indicator was released in August with a value of 81.3. There is a steady trend towards a gradual recovery of the growth of the indicator, which is positive for the USD. The data worse than the forecast could negatively affect the dollar in the short term.

EURUSD price chart in real-time mode