Today, All Investors’ Attention Is Focused On The Jerome Powel’s Speech On The Results Of The Symposium In Jackson Hole

The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose slightly to 353,000 from 349,000 last week. But these figures are still pre-crisis levels, indicating a stable labor market situation. US GDP year-on-year grew to 6.6% (previous 6.5%), although this is below economists ’expectations of 6.7%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak today after the Jackson Hole symposium. This verbal intervention can increase the volatility in the financial markets. If nothing is mentioned about the reduction of the QE program or if Mr. Powell indicates that it is too early to talk about it and better labor market numbers are needed, the dollar index will decline, and stock indices will jump. Conversely, if Mr. Powell says the QE program downturn begins this year, in this case the dollar index will jump sharply, while stock indexes will decline. Analysts believe the central bank will try to start reducing monthly bond purchases this year to avoid having to reach the market later and risk more aggressive steps to curb inflation.

Investors were cautious in the stock markets yesterday, and some investors began to reduce their portfolios, which led to a short-term decline in indices. As a result, the S&P 500 fell 0.58%, the Dow Jones lost 0.54%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.6%.

Thursday’s U.S. military losses were the first in Afghanistan since February 2020 and represented the deadliest day for U.S. troops in a decade. Some critics have blamed Joe Biden for the rapid evacuation that threatened the lives of Americans in Afghanistan providing security at Kabul airport.

Prior to Mr Powell’s speech, European stock market indices also declined yesterday. The Stoxx Europe 600 composite index of the largest companies in the region lost 0.32%. The British FTSE 100 index fell 0.35%, German DAX lost 0.16%, French CAC 40 fell 0.42%. Spanish IBEX 35 and Italian FTSE MIB fell by 0.94% and 0.76% respectively. Deutsche Bank’s shares fell 2.3% according to news of an inspection of the bank unit by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on reports that the bank had exaggerated its use of ESG criteria in investing. The EU is considering reintroducing borders for US tourists visiting European countries. Behind the news, shares of European tourism companies fell yesterday.

Oil rising in price and ending the week with steady growth. Chinese authorities could contain the wave of delta tension, and analysts at Goldman Sachs and UBS still expect oil prices to rise by the end of 2021, as supply on the market will be insufficient.

Gold added 0.15% yesterday, hitting $ 1,793.60 per ounce excess. Gold and silver price dynamics are highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and the US Treasury bond yields. If the Fed maintains its soft monetary policy, gold prices will continue to rise. Conversely, if the Fed announces reductions to its QE program this year, gold could see big sales.

Retail sales in Australia fell in July due to the spread of the delta strain. The New Zealand dollar declined slightly after the country’s prime minister announced a quarantine in Auckland, the country’s largest city, which is likely to remain in place for another two weeks.

Main market quotes:

• S&P 500 (F) 4,470.00 -26.19 (-0.58%)
• Dow Jones 35,213.12 -192.38 (-0.54%)
• DAX 15,793.62 -67.04 (-0.42%)
• FTSE 100 7,124.98 -25.14 (-0.35%)
• USD Index 93.05 +0.22 (+ 0.24%)

Important events for today:

• Jackson Hole Symposium (Day 2);
• Australian Retail Sales (m / m) at 04:30 (GMT + 3);
• US price index PCE (m / m) at 15:30 (GMT + 3);
• Speech by US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at 5 p.m. (GMT + 3);
• US Michigan Consumer (m / m) at 17:00 (GMT + 3).