Bearish Bitcoin fractal with 78% success rate flashes as BTC drops below $43.5K


Last week in Bitcoin (BTC), which saw BTC price fall from $ 47,358 to $ 43,178, raised fears of an extended sell-off.

Independent market analyst Nunya Bizniz highlighted bearish fractal on Bitcoin’s weekly charts on its 21-week exponential moving average (EMA).

In detail the cryptocurrency has closed below the aforementioned support zone 18 times so far, but has retained its previous bullish bias only four times – as shown by the dotted vertical lines in the diagram below.

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Daily price chart of BTC / USD with its 21-week EMA. Source: Nunya Bizniz,

In the remaining cases, a close below the 21-week EMA led to Bitcoin prices being extremely lower, except for a false bearish boom in August 2015, which soon resulted in a “huge bull run,” as the analyst noted.

Similarly, the recent break of Bitcoin under the wave in May 2021 also dropped prices below $ 30,000 for the first time since January 2021. However, the crossover did not result in an adult bearish collapse; retailers bought the dip close to $ 30,000 and led the prices above $ 50,000.

But overall, the phenomenon of Bitcoin prices breaking below a 21-week EMA has caused a prolonged sell-off almost 78% of all time.

Bitcoin is slipping below a 21-week EMA, again

Bitcoin closed the week ending Sept. 26 at $ 43,178, drawing attention to its 19th historic decline below the 21-week EMA – which is about $ 43,502 at the end of the week.

While the fractals predicted a disadvantageous outcome, a close look at the relationship between the 21-week EMA and 50-week simple moving average (SMA) – as shown in the chart below – noted that a possible bearish outlook would need further validation.

This is mainly due to the immediate reaction of traders to the two moving averages, especially when the 20-week EMA (the green wave) closes below the 50-week SMA (the blue wave). The so-called Death Cross indicator previously coincided with further declines in the Bitcoin market.

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Bitcoin price weekly chart with dead cross 20-50-MA. Source:

For example, the BTC / USD rate slipped below its 21-week EMA (~ $ 8,041) in the week ending January 29, 2018, but maintained its upper bias until the green wave closed below the blue. Later, the pair founded close to its 200-week SMA (close to $ 3,187).

Similarly, the death toll 20-50 MA in March 2020 came just a week before the infamous sale of Covid-19, led by the global market crash led by Covid-19. Again, Bitcoin ended up closing close to its 200-week SMA (~ $ 5,512), only to bounce back to new record highs in the sessions later.

Related: JPMorgan CEO says Bitcoin price could rise 10x but still won’t buy it

Therefore, it seems that the potential death of Bitcoin between its 20-week EMA and 50-week SMA could trigger the next sales crisis with the ultimate downside target sitting close to the 200-week SMA (around $ 16,000).

At the same time, Fibonacci levels near $ 34,712 and $ 27,580 could dampen Bitcoin prices to the 200-week SMA.

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