Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Snaps Back

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Japanese Yen Technical Price Forecast: USD / JPY Weekly Trading Levels

  • Update on technical trading levels of Japanese Yen – Weekly Chart
  • USD / JPY threatens exhaustion into uptrend resistance after a six-week rally
  • Support 112.40, 111.60 / 98 (critical) – Key resistance at 114.55 / 92, 116

La US dollar clicked clicked a six-week winning streak against the Japanese Yen with USD / JPY down more than 0.3% in early New York trading on Friday. A reversal of confluence resistance threatens a larger retreat within the limits of the annual uptrend with the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) exchange rate decision next week.

These are the updated targets and invalid levels that matter on the US dollar/ JPY weekly price chart. Review my last Weekly Webinar Strategy for a deep rupture of this Yen technique layout and more.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD / JPY Weekly

Japanese Yen Forecast: USD / JPY Back Back - Can the Inner Bulls Drive It?

Diagram Prepared by Miguel Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD / JPY at Tradingview

Notes:In my last Japan Yen Weekly Price Outlook we noticed that the USD / JPY break was, “approaching a major rresistance zone only higher at 114.55 / 92– a region defined by the high swing of 2018 and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of late-2016 decline. Note that the median line also converges to this threshold over the coming weeks and further highlights the technical significance of this key pivot zone. Price recorded a high at 114.70 before reversing – risk for some hassle / withdrawal while below this threshold.

Initially weekly support rests back at the high week of 2018 at 113.70. Closing below this threshold could feed a steeper price correction within the broader uptrend with such a scenario exposing the 25% parallel (currently ~112.40s) and key support / bullish cancellation at 111.60 / 98– both levels of interest for possible low exhaustion IF achieved. Topside gap from here keeps the focus on later rresistance targets at the August 2015 low at 116.08 and the high week 2017 closes at 116.90.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s business strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Sstrategy

Bottom line:The USD / JPY break remains vulnerable within the limits of the annual uptrend / while below 114.55 / 92. From a business point of view, the focus is on a possible correction to a higher trend – ultimately a larger withdrawal may offer more favorable opportunities. I will release an updated Outlook on Japanese Yen Price after we get further clarity on the near technical trading levels of USD / JPY.

Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment – Price chart of USD / JPY

Japanese Yen Forecast: USD / JPY Returns - Can Yen Bulls Drive It?

  • Summary of IG Customer Sense shows that traders are net-short USD / JPY – the ratio stands at -3.33 (23.07% of traders are long) – usually bullish legacy
  • Long positions are4.15% lower than yesterday and 7.97% lower than last week
  • Short positions are 2.52% higher than yesterday and 15.09% higher than last week
  • We usually take an opposite view to crowd sentiment, and the fact that traders are net-short suggests that USD / JPY prices will continue to rise. Traders are sharper shorter than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USD / JPY bullish opposite trading bias of I feel standpoint.

Key US / Japanese data releases

Japanese Yen Forecast: USD / JPY Returns - Can Yen Bulls Drive It?

Economic Calendarlatest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Letters

— Written by Miguel Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

https://www.dailyfx.com/us-dollar-index?ref-author=Boutros



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