AUDUSD continues to fight for a decisive close above the 0.7500 level for the second consecutive week, despite putting a foothold near the 0.7460 number.
Recent fruitless bullish tests suggest that buying forces are declining, with the MACD and the RSI somewhat supporting that view, as the former is rising at a relatively softer pace and the latter appears to be creating a lower high below its 70-year overbought mark. However, while the indicators remain within the bullish territory, there is an opportunity for further improvement in the market.
A decisive close above the 0.7531, and more importantly, beyond the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), where the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.8006 – 0.7105 low rests, would pave the way to the 0.7615 resistance of the 25th. of June. If the accumulation gains fresh momentum, the next key resistance could appear around the 61.8% Fibonacci of 0.7719.
In the negative scenario, where the floor between the 0.7460 mark and the 38.2% Fibonacci of 0.7450 collapses, the price could immediately find support around the 0.7400 number. Note that the 20-day SMA is also converging at the same level, so any break lower from here could lead to more steep declines likely to the 23.6% Fibonacci of 0.7317. If that is the case, the broken downtrend extended from the 0.7890 peak may also attract special attention before traders target the lower support trend currently seen around 0.7250.
Overall, AUDUSD still has the potential to make further progress in the short term unless the price returns below 0.7460.