EURUSD on track to close below the 200 week MA. What does it mean going into the new trading week?

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First close under MA from July 2020.

With the EURUSD trading at 1.1554, the pair is on track to close the week below the 200-week MA. That MA comes at 1.16657.

First close under MA from July 2020.

Three weeks ago, the pair closed just above the MA level. Since then, the closing price for the week has been comfortably above the moving average level. However, it is noteworthy that the intras week price has traded above and below the moving average level over the last five trading weeks. Closing below the moving average would be negative bias and more bearish.

On the downside, the low price and 2021 reached 1.15236. Not far below that level is the 50% midpoint of the range since the March 2020 low. That midpoint comes at 1.14918. Back in 2018, 2019 and 2020, there were a number of swing highs (see red numbered circles) that stalled within the swing area between 1.1491 and 1.15236. Indeed, the price action has been split since 2019 between being below the swing area and being above the swing area.

As a result, trade in the next week will be concentrated to that area. Will the buyers continue to support and push the price back to the top, or will the sellers take more control and start trading the EURUSD below the swing area and midpoint?

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