USD/JPY Rips to Key Resistance Pivot at Fresh 2021 High

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Japanese Yen Technical Price Forecast: USD / JPY Weekly Trading Levels

  • Update on technical trading levels of Japanese Yen – Weekly Chart
  • USD / JPY is emerging into a key resistance zone at recent annual highs
  • Support 114.05, 113.20, 111.60 / 98 (critical) – Key resistance at 114.55 / 92, 116

La US dollar increased for a second week advance against the Japanese Yen with USD / JPY tearing into resistance at recent annual highs. While the broader focus remains constructive, the buildup may be vulnerable in the coming days into this critical zone. These are the updated targets and invalid levels that matter on the US dollar/ JPY weekly price chart. Review my last Weekly Webinar Strategy for a deep rupture of this Yen technique layout and more.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD / JPY Weekly

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Diagram Prepared by Miguel Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD / JPY at Tradingview

Notes: In my last Japanese Yen Weekly Price Outlook we noticed that the USD / JPY breakout ran into critical resistance at 114.55 / 92– a region where 2018 is swinging high and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of late-2016 decline converges to the median line from the ascending fork formation we traced the annual minimum. We warned that “From a business standpoint, the focus is on a possible correction to uptrend support” – and we got it! USD / JPY recorded a low at 112.72 before sharply rebounding the 25% parallel with the subsequent accumulation again taking price into critical technical resistance – the battle lines drawn.

An upper break / week close above this threshold is necessary for the immediate long-term bias to remain achievable with such a scenario exposing the swing lows of August 2015 at. 116.08 supported by the high-week closing of 2017 at 116.90. Mail rresistance target viewed at the high week of December 2016 close / high at 117.90 & 118.66 respectively. Monthly open support rests at 114.05 supported by the 25% parallel (currently ~113.20s) with a wider bullish constant invalidation at the 111.60 / 98 confluence.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s business strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Sstrategy

Bottom line:The USD / JPY break presses into a convergent uptrend resistance here and the focus is on a possible flexion of this threshold. From a trading point of view, it is best to reduce long exposure / raise protective stops – losses should be limited to the 25% parallel IF price does go higher in this stretch. Note that a break here would probably fuel another accelerated rally – stay agile. I will post an updated Japanese Yen Price Outlook after which we receive further clarity on the near-term technical trading levels of USD / JPY.

Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment – Price chart of USD / JPY

Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment - USD / JPY Price Chart - US Dollar against Inner Potential Position - Technical Outlook

  • Summary of IG Customer Sense shows that traders are net-short USD / JPY – the ratio stands at -2.21 (31.13% of traders are long) – usually bullish legacy
  • Long positions are1.72% higher than yesterday and 9.79% lower than last week
  • Short positions are3.12% lower than yesterday and 14.78% higher than last week
  • We usually take an opposite view to crowd sentiment, and the fact that traders are net-short suggests that USD / JPY prices will continue to rise. Traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short than last week. The combination of current position and recent changes gives us an additional mixed USD / JPY trading bias of I feel standpoint.

US / Japan Economic Calendar

USD / JPY Economic Calendar - Japan US Key Data Publications

Economic Calendarlatest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Letters

— Written by Miguel Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex



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