WTI Futures Bounce At 75 Mark, Broader Bullish Bias Holds


WTI oil futures are striving to surpass the brake 50-day simple moving average (SMA) after the withdrawal of the 7-year high bounced back at the 75.00 handle. The 200-day SMA defends the larger bullish structure, while the 50-day and 100-day SMAs support the near-term uptrend in the pair.

The short-term oscillators suggest that the negative momentum may be exhausting. The MACD is slightly in the negative region but is flattening below its red trigger line, indicating that negative forces are declining somewhat. That said, the RSI signals that upper forces lack a convincing upward drive, while the positively charged stochastic oscillator promotes gains in the pair.

In the positive scenario – reinforced by the lower Bollinger band – buyers could face an immediate zone of resistance between the 50-day SMA at 78.76 and the 79.86 level, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the upper leg from 61.77 to 85.39. Overcoming this, the price may push higher to test the upper Bollinger band at 83.28. If buying interest rates intensify, the bulls could then challenge the seven-year high of 85.39 and the near 86.39 barrier reached in October 2014. Resuming the climb, the price may then target the 88.17 internal swing low from the early part of October 2014 and the 90.50 limit.

If price gains remain capped by the 50-day SMA at 78.76, sellers could face previous bearish restrictions from the near 38.2% Fibo of 76.37, the lower Bollinger band and the 75.00 hurdle. Soaking past the 75.00 mark, a superior defense formed between the 100-day SMA at 74.20 and the 72.71 obstacle could prove to be a tough limit for sellers to conquer. If bearish pressures continue, a possible support trend line, drawn by the 34.02 trough could prevent a deeper decline to challenge the 69.39-70.84 buffer zone, where the 200-day SMA also resides. Slightly lower, the 67.35 barrier could be a critical defense to cement a return of the bearish bias in the bigger picture.

In summary, WTI oil futures maintain an bullish orientation above the psychological number 75.00 and the support band of 72.71-74.20. Negative concerns could grow with a dive beyond the 69.39-70.84 limit.

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