NZDUSD Treads Across 76.4% Fibonacci but Bearish Tone Remains


NZDUSD has been consolidating for about a month now, as declining pressures have eased after recording a 13½-month low of 0.6700. The pair has found support recently from the lower Bollinger band and the 0.6734 level, which is the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the upper leg from 0.6510 to 0.7464, although the SMAs continue to support a bearish trend.

The short-term oscillators transmit mixed signals in directional momentum. The MACD, slightly below the zero mark, has returned lower to its red trigger line showing that sellers are still present. The RSI has soaked in the bearish region, suggesting that negative forces have yet to fully diminish. However, the positively charged stochastic oscillator implies that buying interest may increase.

If the price exceeds the mid-Bollinger band at 0.6788, buyers may face a strengthened ceiling tied to the recent consolidation, molded between the upper Bollinger band at 0.6850 and the 61.8% Fibo of 0.6875. Clearing this, buyers could deal with the near 0.6910 hurdle before looking at the 100-day SMA at 0.6955. If the pair continues to recover lost ground, a push beyond the neighboring 0.6978 barrier could prompt the bulls to target the 200-day SMA at 0.7019.

Otherwise, if the mid-Bollinger band prevents rises in the pair, initial support may arise around the 76.4% Fibo of 0.6734 and the lower Bollinger band at 0.6721 before sellers challenge the 13½-month low of 0.6700. If the decline resumed, the 0.6588-0.6613 support band created in November 2020 could enter before the 0.6552 barrier.

In summary, NZDUSD is currently locked in a sideways market between the lower limit of 0.6700-0.6734 and the upper limit of 0.6850-0.6875. That said, the neutral-to-bearish mood is active and a price rise above 0.7100 would be needed to restore optimism in the pair.




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