Global June Flash PMI’s and Market Recovery

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Tomorrow’s series of previous or lightning PMIs are likely to set the tone for market sentiment for the rest of the month. With inflation still rising around the world, the impact is first being felt by purchasing managers. If PMIs continue to be depressed, it is unlikely that traders will change their pessimistic outlook. If PMI manages to rebound, it could remove some of the fear of an impending global recession.

Typically, retailers would focus on the manufacturing component as this reflects overall productivity. However, we already know that commodity prices are high; the question is whether retailers are willing to continue to buy or see a decline in demand. Therefore, the combined number, which measures an overall outlook for the entire economy, is likely to be more consistent this time around.

Australia

There is an ongoing debate over whether tighter tariffs will hurt consumer demand. The RBA insists the economy can withstand higher rates, even as house prices begin to fall. Businesses are barely in optimistic territory, and that optimism is expected to slide a little further this month.

Australian June Flash Composite PMI is forecast to fall to 52.0 of 52.9 prior.

France

France is likely to set the tone for the EU markets as they report first. Because the ECB is considering an increase, companies will need to gauge whether that will affect sales, and therefore how much of a purchase they are making.

French June Flash Composite PMI is projected at 56.0down from 57.0 in May.

Germany

The largest economy in Europe could move the markets if its results are quite different from those of France. Here, traders are likely to be more interested in manufacturing, as it is the main sector in Germany’s economy. It is also the most sensitive to cost pressures due to the aftermath of the war in Ukraine.

German June Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to slide to 54.0 of 54.8 prior.

UK

Across the Channel, British businesses emerging from the pandemic are once again facing concerns about a Brexit fall as London and Brussels return to bargaining over the Northern Ireland Protocol. Despite recent government moves to provide assistance to British households facing rapidly rising costs, businesses are likely to remain less optimistic.

UK June Flash Composite PMI is forecast at 52.6 compared to 53.1 prior.

United States

The world’s largest economy is viewed as facing heightened challenges as the Fed tightens policy even after a quarter of negative growth. Inflation is feeding into the bottom line of most companies, after they reported real net income falling during the last round of earnings.

US June Flash Composite PMI is forecast to fall to 52.8 of 53.6 previous, the worst performance of all major economies.

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