Gold Correction Searches for a Low

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Gold prices are entering the start of Q3 trading just above the target opened annually with XAU / USD still holding multi-year high-level support. While the broader outlook remains constructive, the threat for a deeper correction is rising in the medium term after many failed attempts to break resistance. These are the levels we are tracking in the opening of Q3.

Gold Price Technical Analysis: Monthly Timeframe (November 2008 to June 2022) (diagram 1)

Gold Q3 2022 Technical Forecast: Gold Correction Seeks Low

Source – Business View; Prepared by Michael Boutros

The March rally failed just before the record highs at 2075 with the subsequent withdrawal picking up prices into annual open support at1829. IF prices actually rise, losses should be limited to the 2008/2015 slope parallel with wider. bullish invalidation set at the monthly closing of March 2021 low in 1707.

Technical Analysis of Gold Price: Weekly Time Frame (September 2018 to June 2022) (diagram 2)

Gold Q3 2022 Technical Forecast: Gold Correction Seeks Low

Source – Business View; Prepared by Michael Boutros

A more detailed look at the weekly chart shows gold resting just above a key Fibonacci confluence at which we tracked. 1818/29. We are looking for a possible flexion of this range with a closing below the low weekend 1791 needed to shift the focus to a confluent upward trend at 1729 – area of ​​interest for possible disadvantageous exhaustion IF achieved.

Key Fibonacci Confluence

Resistance stands at the 38.2% rebound from the March decline / 2021 high close at 1903- a breach / weekly close above this threshold would be needed to reverse the multi-month downtrend with such a scenario exposing the 61.8% enrichment at. 1962 and the annual high week closes at 1988.

Bottom Line

Gold rests on a key pivot range around the annual opening. The focus in Q3 is on a break of the 1818-1903 range with the threat weighed down to the downside while below the March trend. We are looking for low exhaustion in the third quarter – ultimately a larger retreat may offer more favorable opportunities closer to high-trend supports.



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