Going into the last quarter, I gave BTC / USD the advantage of the doubt that it could rise, but for that to be the case, it would need to quickly gain a circle of recent interest. That of course didn’t materialize when we started Q2, and on top of that BTC rolled fast with risky trends.
Buying this Quarter
In June, BTC / USD not only broke a big support at 28600, but it also fell below the December 2017 high at 19666. However, we saw a weekly close above the 2017 level after a bottom at 17592. The weekly reversal back above critical. level of support coupled with market sentiment appearing to be on the brink of a wider rebound, BTC should see someone buy this quarter.
However, strength is viewed as likely to be transient, as the longer-term forces appear to be aimed at sending Bitcoin much lower. But before that develops (nothing rarely happens in a straight line) a build-up back to old support around 28600 to around 30k is viewed as having a decent probability. Ahead of that big test is a weekly low at 25400 to observe.
Bitcoin Weekly Chart (BTC / USD).
Diagram created with TradingView
What is happening around former support will be key to watching if price rises to that point. In line with the broader trend lower it could be the capsule on a bounce before another major lower leg develops. The next big level of support to look below 17592 comes at 13880, the 2019 high.
The general trading bias is bullish while 17592 holds. Trading from the long side may be the way to go until we see former support near 30k tested as a possible new source of resistance.