Economists and observers note that the minutes of the RBA’s August meeting, published earlier on Wednesday, can be characterized as “dove”. And now, after today’s release of the Australian labor market report, many market participants estimate it is likely that the RBA will cut the rate by 25 bp. in September or puts this process on hold, and does not raise the interest rate, as previously thought.
Against the background of the continued increase in interest rates by the Fed and a slower approach by the RBA to this process, we should expect a further decline in the pair AUD / USD.
At the time of publication of this article, the pair is trading near 0.6963, while remaining in the bear market zone below key resistance levels 0.7130, 0.7280 (for more details, see “AUD/USD: technical analysis and trading recommendations for 08/ 18). /2022”).
The most likely is a break of the local support level of 0.6900 and a further decline within the descending channel on the weekly chart AUD / USD. Its lower limit goes below 0.6600 and below the local 2-year low 0.6685 reached last month.
In an alternative scenario and after the break of the resistance levels of 0.6975, 0.7000 AUD / USD will go to the resistance levels of 0.7080, 0.7130.
A break of the 0.7280 resistance level will once again bring AUD/USD into the zone of a long-term bull market.
Support levels: 0.6900, 0.6850, 0.6800, 0.6700, 0.6685, 0.6660, 0.6500, 0.6455, 0.6270, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510
Resistance levels: 0.6975, 0.7000, 0.7037, 0.7080, 0.7100, 0.7130, 0.7200, 0.7280
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