Goldman Sachs on the US economy – more aggressive Fed, higher unemployment, lower growth


A note from Goldman Sachs from later Friday (information via Reuters) has analysts at the bank making more pessimistic forecasts ahead due to more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening policy for the rest of this year:

  • “higher rates combined with recent tightening of financial conditions imply a slightly worse outlook for growth and employment next year”

Goldman Sachs revised its projection for next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. GS expects the FOMC to raise 75 basis points, up from 50 basis points previously.

  • sees a 50 bp rise in November
  • sees a 50 bp rise in December
  • sees the fed funds rate peak at 4-4.25% by the end of 2022

Economic Forecasts:

  • sees GDP growth of 1.1% in 2023 (down from its previous peak of 1.5% growth from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the end of 2023).
  • unemployment rate at 3.7% by the end of 2022 (from a previous call of 3.6%), to 4.1% by the end of 2023 (from 3.8%)

Sept, Nov, and Dec dates below:



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