USDCHF bounces this week. First up week after 4 straight weeks lower.

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USDCHF bounces back this week in swing area and just above 100WMA

The USDCHF has lost value over the last 4 weeks and that momentum continued into the early part of the week. The price moved below the August low at 0.9370, completing an up and down cycle that saw the price move to an October high at 1.0148 and a retest of that high just two weeks ago before falling lower.

The move to the downside of those high, took the price down -7.8% or close to 800 pips from the high to the low. On the downside, the USDCHF reached 22 pips from the 100-week MA. The pair also stalled in a swing area between 0.9357 and 0.9382 (see red numbered circles on the weekly chart above).

The rebound has seen the pair move up 1.8% currently. For the week (from last Friday), the price rises by 1.18%.

What I see on the daily chart below is that the USDCHF has some sharp ups and downs in 2022. That is the pattern and the market can get used to that pattern.

The move lower since the November peak saw the price cut below the 100 and 200 day MA like a hot knife through butter (blue and green lines). Last Friday, the pair moved below an upward sloping trend line and tried to stay below, but yesterday, the price moved back above that broken trend line. A shift? Buyers pushed forward. Can they now keep that momentum up?

That trend line cuts at 0.9482. There is a daily swing area near that level between 0.9453 to 0.9479. Staying above that area is now support and would keep the click back higher idea in play.

USDCHF back above broken trend line

Drilling down to the hourly chart below, the price is trading between the 100 hour MA below and the 200 hour MA above. The maximum this week, stopped before the 38.2% of the last trend moves lower (at 0.9563). If the buyers are to take control of movement – and maybe set the traders up for another run higher – above the 38.2% and then the falling 200-hour MA (green line) at 0.9563 and 0. 95829 respectively is necessary. Above those levels, both the 50% and swing area near 0.9627 would be the next key upside hurdle.

Buyers try. The price is above the 100 hour MA. The decline this week stalled in a swing area on the weekly chart and got within 22 pips of the KEY 100 week MA. Will the ‘trial’ lead to results?. Will the buyers gather MORE advanced momentum?

That will be determined if the price can reach and break some of the above targets described in this post.

It will also be determined if broken levels move higher this week as the 100 hour MA holds any dip. If that can happen, the buyers are still playing. If this does not happen, the pair moves lower.

USDCHF between the 100/200 hour MAs

Source

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