Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 6 Apr: Weekly claims data higher after seasonals adjusted

The weekly advertising data is seasonally adjusted to account for the disappearance of Covid influences, but seasonally still reflects the volatility over recent years. In short, the data is back to normal, and so are the seasonals. However, due to the adjustments to last year, the initial jobless claims have moved from under 200K for most of the year to above and trending more towards the top.

This is the current adjusted chart of the ads. Note the upward slope indicative of more jobless ads over time, and raw numbers above 200K.

In contrast, below is the chart of claims from last week before the new seasonal ones. Note how the levels are below 200 K, and the slope is sideways indicating stable data.

Tomorrow, the US jobs data will be released by the BLS with expectations for a gain of 239K versus 311K last month. The unemployment rate is expected to come in at 3.6% unchanged from last month. Does the data today necessarily affect the data tomorrow? Not really except to say that maybe the tilt is more unfavorable given the recent trend.

Despite the weaker jobs data, US yields initially moved lower, but then rebounded. The two-year yield is up seven basis points at 3.833%. The 10-year yield rises 1.8 basis points to 3.305%. Despite today’s gains, the two-year yield is still down -19.6 basis points for the week. The 10-year yield is down -16.8 basis points.

Although the US stock market is closed tomorrow for Good Friday, the US bond market will open for a shortened session (until 12 noon).

In the US stock market today, the major indexes are closing higher. The S&P and the NASDAQ index broke two-day losing streaks. The Dow industrial average eats a small gain of 0.01%. The S&P index rose 0.36%, and the NASDAQ index was up 0.76%.

In the forex, the CHF ends the day as the strongest of the major currencies with the EUR and USD also mostly higher. The losers – or weakest of the major currencies, were the NZD and the AUD with the NZD almost doubling the AUD. .

A snapshot of other markets shows:

• Spot gold $-13.58 or -0.67% at $2007.11.
• Spot silver was up five cents or 0.19% at $24.94
• WTI crude is down $0.12 at $80.49
• Bitcoin is trading just above the $28,000 level at $28,054.