Main scenario: consider long positions of corrections above the level of 1945.51 with a target of 2022.28 – 2059.86.
Alternative scenario: a break and consolidation below the level of 1945.51 will allow the pair to continue to decline to the levels of 1887.50 – 1836.74.
Analysis: on the daily chart, a bearish correction is thought to have ended developing as the fourth wave of greater degree (4), and the fifth wave (5) is forming. Apparently, the first wave 1 of (5) is formed and a bearish correction is completed as a second wave 2 of (5) on the H4 chart. Presumably the third wave 3 of (5) is unfolding. The first counter-trend wave of smaller degree i of 3 is developing on the H1 chart, with wave (iii) of i continuing to form as its part. If the assumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to the levels of 2022.28 – 2059.86. The level of 1945.51 is critical in this scenario because a break will allow the pair to continue to decrease to the levels of 1887.50 – 1836.74.
XAUUSD price chart in real time mode
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