Bitcoin plunged to $29,000 on July 24, signaling that bears are trying to seize control. It appears that the failure to hold the higher levels may have tempted short-term bulls to book profits and aggressive bears to initiate short positions.
Although the near-term looks bearish, long-term investors remain undeterred, and they continue to hold their positions. Glassnode data shows that the long-term supply of Bitcoin (BTC) made a new high of 14.52 million Bitcoin, “equivalent to 75% of the circulating supply.”
While the cryptocurrency markets have turned soft in the short term, the US stock markets remain on a strong footing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has got up for 10 straight days, its longest streak since 2017. However, things could change this week with a slew of key earnings reports and the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on July 26. The latter could also impact the US Dollar Index (DXY), which is on a recovery path.
Could lower levels attract buyers into Bitcoin and opt for altcoins? Will the strength in the US stock markets limit the downside in the cryptocurrency markets? Let’s analyze the letters to find out.
S&P 500 price analysis
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) declined from 4,578 on July 19, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not given up much ground. This suggests that the buyers are not dumping their positions because they anticipate that the uptrend will continue.
The ascending 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 4,471 and the relative strength index (RSI) in the overbought territory suggest that bulls are in control. If the price emerges from 4,513 or the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that lower levels continue to attract buyers.
That will improve the prospects of a break above 4,578. The index could then rise to 4,650 and eventually to 4,800.
This positive view will be negated if the price plunges below the 20-day EMA. That could open the doors for a drop to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of 4,336.
US dollar price analysis
The US Dollar Index rose sharply on July 18 and rose above the breakout level of 100.82 on July 20. This suggests that the break below 100.82 may have been a bear trap.
The price has reached the 20-day EMA, which is an important level to pay attention to. If the price breaks sharply from it and plunges below 99.57, the decline may resume. The index may then crash to 97.50.
Instead, if the price breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are back in the game. The index may then climb to the 50-day SMA (102.66) and then to the downtrend line.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin bulls again pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($29,957) on July 23, but the long wick on the candlestick shows strong selling at higher levels.
The selling intensified on July 24, and the price plunged below the strong support at $29,500 that had held for the past few days. The BTC/USDT pair went down to the 50-day SMA ($29,021), which is a crucial level to watch.
If the price rises from the current level and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the breakout may have been a bear trap. The pair can then rise to $31,000.
Conversely, if the price continues lower and dives below the 50-day SMA, it will suggest that the bulls have given up. The pair may then drop to $27,500 and then to $26,000.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) bounced off the 50-day SMA ($1,852) on July 23, and the bulls tried to move the price above the 20-day EMA ($1,888), but the bears held their ground.
The bears are trying to pull and support the price below the 50-day SMA. If they succeed in doing so, the ETH/USDT pair could start a deeper correction towards $1,700. Such a drop will indicate that the pair may remain stuck in the $1,626 to $2,000 range for some time. The price action within the range is likely to be random and volatile.
If the price bounces off the 50-day SMA and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest solid buying at lower levels. That can open the doors for a potential rally to $2,000. The next trend move is likely to start on a break above $2,000 or below $1,626.
XRP price analysis
After failing to support above $0.83 on July 19 and 20, XRP (XRP) turned to the 20-day EMA ($0.67).
If bulls want to keep the uptrend intact, they will need to protect the 20-day EMA with vigor. If the price rebounds from this level with strength, the XRP / USDT pair may form a range soon.
The limits of the range could be $0.66 on the downside and $0.86 on the upside. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the upper resistance of $0.86.
Conversely, if the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are rushing to the exit. That could attract further selling, and the pair may collapse to the breakout level of $0.56.
BNB price analysis
The bulls failed to propel BNB (BNB) above the 20-day EMA ($243) in recent days. This has attracted heavy selling by the bears, who are trying to lower the price below the support of the symmetrical triangle.
If they succeed, it will suggest that the uncertainty between the bulls and the bears has resolved in favor of the sellers.
The BNB / USDT pair could then fall to the critical support at $220. This level is likely to attract aggressive buying from the bulls. If the price rebounds from $220 with strength, it will suggest that the pair may remain bound for some time.
Another possibility is that the price bounces off the support line of the triangle. In that case, the couple can extend their stay within the triangle for a few more days. Buyers will need to push the price above the triangle to signal a reversal.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) witnessed a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the 20-day EMA ($0.31).
The flattening of the 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint does not give a clear advantage to either the buyers or the sellers. This uncertainty will tilt in favor of the bears if the price drops below $0.30. That could lower the price to the uptrend line.
Conversely, if buyers drive the price above $0.33, it will suggest that bulls are back in the game. The ADA/USDT pair could then rise to the July 14 intraday high of $0.38. The bears are likely to defend this level with vigor.
Related: Bitcoin whale inflow exchange rate hits 1-year high – over 40%
Dogecoin price analysis
The bears tried to pull Dogecoin (DOGE) back below the breakout level of $0.07 on July 22, but the bulls held their ground.
The 20-day EMA ($0.07) has started to rise and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the upside. There is minor resistance at $0.08, where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense.
If buyers do not allow the price to slip below the 20-day EMA, the likelihood of a rally to $0.10 increases. This positive view will cancel soon if the price declines and supports below $0.07.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) continues to witness profit booking by short-term traders. That pulled the price below the 20-day EMA ($23.73) on July 24.
The bulls will try to arrest the downward move at $22.30. If the price rebounds from this support, the bulls will again try to clear the upper hurdle at $27.12. If they can pull it off, the SOL/USDT pair may retest the July 14 high of $32.13.
On the other hand, if the price dives below $22.30, it will suggest that the break above $27.12 may have been a bull trap. The pair could then fall to the 50-day SMA ($19.80). Such a move will suggest that the pair may continue to swing in the large range between $14 and $27.12 for some time.
Polygon pricing analysis
Polygon (MATIC) has been trading near the 20-day EMA ($0.74) over the past few days. This shows that the bulls are protecting the level, but they have failed to start a recovery. This indicates that the bears are maintaining their pressure.
The 20-day EMA is leveling off and the RSI has dropped below 50, indicating a balance between supply and demand. This balance could tilt in favor of the bears if the price falls below the 50-day SMA. The MATIC/USDT pair could then slide to $0.60.
Conversely, if the price rises from the current level and rises above $0.80, it will signal solid buying at lower levels. The pair can then retest the local high at $0.89. A break above this level could indicate the resumption of the uptrend.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.